Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

Barry Posen (a security studies professor from MIT) has a piece arguing that while it is not great news that Iran may get nukes, it isn't so bad that a military attack is necessary. He argues that the US can counter almost any thing the Iranians might do. It's a good article, but I think he is a little optimistic that Iran won't return to its more subversive past. Kenneth Pollack argues in the Persian Puzzle that Iran will be able to inflict serious harm through subversion. In addition, subversion could lead to conflict with the US and accidental war, which could be nuclear. So, Posen may be correct that military action is not the optimal policy or is even needed, but I think he is overly optimistic about the consequences of an Iranian bomb.

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