End of the world as we know it?

One of the big questions for international relations is whether American power is declining or not. If it is, the US should probably be seeking a strategy that conserves power and leverages others (i.e. allies) power. Possible paths are laid out in Haas's The Opportunity , Stephen Walt's Taming American Power and Kupchan's The End of the American Era. Ralph Peters believes American power will remain at least relatively pre-eminent for the forseeable future and argues for a different strategy in New Glory.

Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers provides a useful analytical tool for the question of power. He describes the rise of fall of powers like Spain, Holland and England. He shows how their economic and military power grew and then declined compared to other powers. He identifed "imperial overstretch" as the main culprit. As the states acquired more and more power, the marginal return on their efforts decreased until it became too costly to manage the empire. The book famously made the bad call that the US was in danger of losing the Cold War to the Soviet Union as the US was overstretched. Well we all know what really happened.

It is worth re-reading the book to consider today's United States. Looking at today's the world, the US still isn't that overstretched. Yes the Army and Marines are, but the Navy and Air Force are not. Total GDP spent on the military is 5% or less. I would place greater concern on the state of public education and loss of leadership in technology. A decline in social mobility is also worrying.